# Some links of the past # [PDCA vs OODA](https://readwise.io/reader/shared/01h5mxqr5cwyg3tysjxqd6bmjg) ![PDCA Cycle 3 What is the PDCA Cycle and how can it improve your processes?](https://www.siteware.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/PDCA-Cycle-3-1024x1024.png align="left") ## PDCA * **Plan-Do-Check-Act**, or Deming wheel, Shewhart cycle, control circle * Designed to continuously improve a process or a system * **Plan**: objectives, requirements, constraints and methods are defined * **Do**: a pilot project/small-scale test * **Check**: performance check and adjustments * **Act**: permanent change and forward propagation ## OODA ![The OODA Loop - The Decision Lab](https://images.prismic.io/thedecisionlab/16148db4-9539-4765-b3c1-05eca115f208_OODA-Loop.png?auto=format,compress align="left") * Developed by "40-second" John Boyde, an air pilot. I've written [about OODA](https://t.me/ohmyboi/363), and [once more](https://t.me/ohmyboi/686) * The faster and better you iterate + the more you disrupt your opponents' loops ⇒ the better you end up * **Observe-Orient-Decide-Act** * Designed to be **adaptable to unpredictable and volatile situations** # [SHAP analysis as a base for AI interpretation](https://www.aidancooper.co.uk/a-non-technical-guide-to-interpreting-shap-analyses/amp/)
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Aidan's Github repo with the analysis
![Explaining Machine Learning Models: A Non-Technical Guide to Interpreting SHAP Analyses](https://www.aidancooper.co.uk/content/images/2021/11/beeswarm.png align="left") Some quotes: * SHAP deconstructs a prediction into a sum of contributions from each of the model's input variables.[[1,](https://www.aidancooper.co.uk/a-non-technical-guide-to-interpreting-shap-analyses/#shap-slundberg) \[2]\](https://www.aidancooper.co.uk/a-non-technical-guide-to-interpreting-shap-analyses/#shap-iml) * A machine learning model's prediction, *f(x)*, can be represented as the **sum of its computed SHAP values, plus a fixed base value**, such that: $$f(x) = base\;value + sum(SHAP\;values)$$ * SHAP quantifies **how important each input variable is to a model** for making predictions * SHAP is a model-agnostic technique that can be applied to any machine learning algorithm ![Waterfall plot](https://www.aidancooper.co.uk/content/images/2021/11/waterfall.png align="left") *Waterfall plot* ![Bar plot](https://www.aidancooper.co.uk/content/images/2021/11/bar.png align="left") *Bar plot* ![](https://www.aidancooper.co.uk/content/images/2021/11/beeswarm-1.png align="left") *Beeswarm plot* ![](https://www.aidancooper.co.uk/content/images/2021/11/scatter_top5.png align="left") *Dependence plot* # [Perfect...pitch deck?](https://www.newsletter.datadrivenvc.io/p/the-perfect-pitch-deck-10-examples) * On average, founders need to **pitch to about 40 investors over 12 weeks to close a round** [Shuaib (2024).](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/adamshuaib_how-many-vc-meetings-do-startups-need-to-activity-7196463863385456641-1F_6?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop) * Traditional wisdom suggests some **declines in investor activity during the summer months and around the Christmas holidays**. While [Holloway (2024)](https://www.holloway.com/g/venture-capital/sections/the-macro-vc-calendar) [finds a lack](https://www.holloway.com/g/venture-capital/sections/the-macro-vc-calendar) of seasonality in VC funding based on the date of announcements * However, adding to the previous point, [@VCBrags](https://x.com/VCBrags) finds that a lot of VCs actually **continue working during the summer, with no vacation** * ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1f273e9d-3780-4036-a4e7-ad7b0262da02_1496x602.webp align="left") Investors look at your deck for ~ 2 minutes on average * In fact, the correlation between the number of investors you contact and the funds you raise is surprisingly weak ([DocSend, 2024).](https://www.docsend.com/index/startup-fundraising/#htoc-pre-seed-startup-fundraising-all-you-need-to-know1) ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8beb7499-13d7-46c1-8642-f05882a3e558_1472x1240.webp align="left") # [Psychede](https://www.docsend.com/index/startup-fundraising/#htoc-pre-seed-startup-fundraising-all-you-need-to-know1)[l](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/adamshuaib_how-many-vc-meetings-do-startups-need-to-activity-7196463863385456641-1F_6?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop)[ics and PPI](https://psychopharmacologyinstitute.com/section/how-psychedelics-influence-brain-networks-2813-5749) No, that's Psychopharmacology Institute, not Proton Pump Inhibitors, ha! Loved their intro to DMN: ![](https://cdn.psychopharmacologyinstitute.com/transcripts/%5B8203%5D%20How%20Psychedelics%20Influence%20Brain%20Networks/image9.jpeg align="left") * Psychedelics disrupt DMN: * Consistent across various studies * Multiple psychedelics show effect * Intensity linked to experience A nice overview on claustrum, a 5HT2Ar-rich zone that, based on different hypotheses, either integrates sensory input into a singular experiential flow (basis of [qualia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qualia)?) or switches between DMN and CEN (Central Executive Network). ![](https://cdn.psychopharmacologyinstitute.com/transcripts/%5B8203%5D%20How%20Psychedelics%20Influence%20Brain%20Networks/image13.jpeg align="left") *An overview* ![](https://cdn.psychopharmacologyinstitute.com/transcripts/%5B8203%5D%20How%20Psychedelics%20Influence%20Brain%20Networks/image14.jpeg align="left") *Nicely disrupted...* So, in the end (I've tried so hard to write this post, but in the end it doesn't even matter): * Disruption of claustrum activity by psychedelics may contribute to synaesthetic experiences, too * It can also serve (wild non-neuro-broscience guess) as one of the inductors to neuroplasticity induction by 5HT2Ar activation, perhaps? E.g. *"(the usual experiential flow is disrupted + excitability/stress are on the rise) ⇒ need to adapt to changing circumstances"* # More links ## reveal.js A nice system for doing decks: * [My short excerpt put on Github](https://github.com/zakhar-kogan/kb-obsidian/blob/main/excerpts%20articles/reveal.js.md) * [An even shorter hosted version](https://peach-amargo-33.tiiny.site/) * [Put on slides.com](https://slides.com/zakharkogan/deck) --- Welcome to **Teleogenic**❣️ Other places I cross-post (not always) to: * [**Hashnode**](https://posts.teleogenic.com) * [**Medium**](https://baldr.medium.com/) * [**Telegram**](https://t.me/ohmyboi) * [**Twitter**](https://twitter.com/ZakharKogan) * [**LinkedIn**](https://www.linkedin.com/in/zakhar-kogan/)