# SHIft happens!
I’ve recently stumbled upon one of the “it’s worse than we thought” [posts on jobs’ crisis](https://www.bloodinthemachine.com/p/the-ai-jobs-crisis-is-here-now) propagated by the advent of ML/AI. It’s reasonable and has some great ideas.
But do I want to talk about it? Sure, although that’s too painful of a wound
---
# What gives?
In this post I try to explore why **“SHIft happens”** - when Snowballing changes, Human tendencies, and Inflection points collide.
A quote caught my attention:
> It’s here, right now. It just **doesn’t look quite like many expected** it to.
So, the change turns out **not as expected**. Why is that so? Why do our [expectation → inference machines](https://t.me/ohmyboi/1190) (wrote on it [here](https://t.me/ohmyboi/1190)) give way on predicting anything but the amount of Cheetos we’re gonna pull out the pack?
I’d reckon **two** reasons are at play:
### Exponential error accumulation
A la LeCun’s [point about LLMs’ doom](https://x.com/ylecun/status/1640123182983045120) from his JEPA architecture talk ([covered here](https://posts.teleogenic.com/yann-lecun-and-the-jepa-of-ai)):
![](https://cdn.hashnode.com/res/hashnode/image/upload/v1760009296331/27c362c4-e6ec-466c-ba3a-768f52b667c9.png align="center")
### The nature of change differing from our cognitive intuition
Here’s where I’d want to dive into my labyrinthine conceptual web… I’ll leave you to guess [which one](https://rarehistoricalphotos.com/nasa-spiders-drugs-experiment/) it may actually be (Source: the legendary [NASA spider experiment](https://rarehistoricalphotos.com/nasa-spiders-drugs-experiment/), pdf [here](https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20100033433/downloads/20100033433.pdf)):
![](https://cdn.hashnode.com/res/hashnode/image/upload/v1760009309759/0bba3a98-1a12-4f24-954d-daa87b9e51a0.png align="center")
So… When sci-fi [authors predicted (and still do!) the future](https://www.livescience.com/technology/sci-fi-technology-predictions-that-came-true), they were often wrong on the mundane of our everyday lives in year X - e.g. whether we’ll have seamless face identification, overarching voice interfaces, the amount of advertisement, the availability of interstellar travel and energy, etc.
💡
P.S. Someone’s even made a tracking table for all the predictions! It’s
here.
Why would that be? The obvious answer is *‘predicting even macro-events and trends in such a complex world is a feat not many achieved, wiseass’*, I know… However, I had that urge to build my own intuitions, and flesh them out more clearly.
## The framework
![](https://cdn.hashnode.com/res/hashnode/image/upload/v1760009330586/ae051286-867b-4483-b39e-87daa1df15d7.png align="center")
Tackling the example of biopsychosocial model, I’d offer three interconnected time- and causescapes (just coined that, y’know - the broad landscape of cause-and-effect events and paths):
### Snowballing, indiscernible changes
![Preview image](https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:700/1*NkBxiqFdm1JC3Ht25Rg34w.jpeg align="left")
Have you ever witnessed a glacier move? Apart from timelapse videos. Me neither - yet it’s there, all the time!
In my opinion, we often underestimate the **compounding effect of the smallest events** - someone got featured on TikTok main page, your brainy friend had started an MIT student blog - kinda [like the Butterfly effect](https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/butterfly-effect-how-tiny-decisions-shape-our-lives-bhavin-navin-shah-6beof/), but less dramatic.
I’d put [Annales’ school’s history view](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annales_school) as an influence, along with recently found term [cliodynamics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cliodynamics). The **Annales + cliodynamics** combo distinguishes itself through three frameworks:
* [three **timescapes**](https://www.carleton.edu/history/faculty/in-memoriam/weiner/annales/): short events, conjectures/cycles, durable trends (longue duree)
* apart from **timescapes, geoeconomical snapshots and human mentalities** should be taken into account (we’ll touch that briefly, too)
* **mathematical modeling**, or usign something akin to [stock-and-flow diagrams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_and_flow), as per cliodynamics - as needed
The combination of the first two helps explain how history quietly snowballs: we tend to overestimate the impact of discrete events while underestimating compounding trends. And sure, it **does have a name** and a close cognitive bias already ➡️ [Amara’s Law (coined by Roy Amara),](https://www.computer.org/publications/tech-news/trends/amaras-law-and-tech-future) or temporal discounting bias…
### Inflection points (and ⌐🦢)
![](https://images.prismic.io/sketchplanations/652a891d-3887-4fe2-b62e-3c3d66b07faf_SP+777+-+Black+swan.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=max&w=1920 align="left")
As per Nassim Taleb (unpredictable events) and Thomas Kuhn ([scientific revolutions](https://philosophyalevel.com/posts/structure-of-scientific-revolutions-thomas-kuhn/)), history is not only shaped by gradual movement - sudden inflection points take place:
💡
Unpredictable events - likely actually outside our attention scope, sensemaking, or information-gathering capabilities - sometimes reshape the landscape in ways no trends could predict.
Definitely, progress accumulates quantitatively (e.g. CPU manufacturing) - sometimes interspersed with micro-explosions of paradigm shifts; those **could look like black swans to most but the scientific circles/grantmakers/investors**.
When ‘progress’, and subsequently, [‘problems’/anomalies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Structure_of_Scientific_Revolutions#Phases) accumulate (akin to a hedonic treadmill for progress - society ‘adapts’ to the good/progress and ‘demands’ more) - paradigm shifts sometimes happen:
![](https://cdn.hashnode.com/res/hashnode/image/upload/v1760009431466/6b061c96-72a5-4f62-8d53-be79d46a6e55.png align="center")
### Human nature/tendencies
![Article Image](https://dbmteam.com/media/b2cjdpdr/ooda-loop-observe-orient-decide-act.png?width=720 align="left")
[OODA](https://t.me/ohmyboi/1325) (Observe-Orient-Decide-Act), predictable irrationality ([Dan Ariely](https://www.samuelthomasdavies.com/book-summaries/psychology/predictably-irrational/)), human needs - it all goes there. Some theses:
* Every human is a sometimes irrational agent, as per Thucydides acting [out of fear or self-interest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thucydides#Comparison_with_Herodotus) (I’d doubt and expand that in \[3\]
* They act in an ~[OODA loop](https://thedecisionlab.com/reference-guide/computer-science/the-ooda-loop) based on circumstances, events, social and mental conditioning, etc.
* They also **act in varying interests** (selfish, altruistic), based on both OODA and basic **human needs**. As per a nice list (not Maslow) [here](https://www.tonyrobbins.com/blog/do-you-need-to-feel-significant):
1. **Certainty** and **variety**
2. **Significance** and **Contribution**
3. **Growth/Development** and **Love/Unity**
I’d also add basic needs, e.g. sexual desire (sex [sells](https://www.businessnewsdaily.com/2649-sex-sells-more.html)) etc. Another comprehensive list of 30 is [here](https://andrewbenjamingeorge.com/30-human-needs-a-comprehensive-list/). + the GOAT’s (Charlie Munger) list is [here](https://fs.blog/great-talks/psychology-human-misjudgment/), under Human Misjudgment:
![](https://cdn.hashnode.com/res/hashnode/image/upload/v1760009465949/64430765-cb03-4a51-ad27-f6e0d63d1706.png align="center")
4. Again, the interests would largely be shaped by **current attention scope**. I.e. anything we’re not paying close attention to (which is too easy in today’s information Day D-style bombardment) moves asynchronously but relentlessly. That may both come as a surprise AND not (or actually may indirectly) influence decisions.
## Bottom-bottom line
People, operating under limited attention and according to varied self-interests, make small choices that—over time—accumulate into broader trends, conjectures, and hype cycles.
Markets and science, responding to these cumulative shifts, sometimes experience sudden paradigm changes or unpredictable events.
😌
One more paradigm shift - we’re finally on to peer into a real-world situation. Yeah, I’ve lost focus at least twice myself…
# Let’s check it out
Say, on the nature of aforementioned programmer jobs - it’s said to [enter recession](https://cacm.acm.org/news/the-outlook-for-programmers/) with the amount of jobs dwindling to [its lowest level since 1980](https://www.yahoo.com/news/employment-computer-programmers-u-plummeted-180040203.html):
![](https://cdn.hashnode.com/res/hashnode/image/upload/v1759684775953/8df4511d-c51d-4252-a9ea-87ddd460a06d.png align="left")
But how’s it looking through the **Snowballing changes, Human Tendencies, Inflection points** lenses? Or, *SHIft happens*. Or, *Oh SHIft*! Sorry, stopped right there.
## Snowballing changes
![](https://devclass.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/stackoverflow-1024x519.jpg align="left")
They do accumulate, e.g. the famous dead internet theory as predicted - [less people used StackOverflow](https://devclass.com/2025/05/13/stack-overflow-seeks-rebrand-as-traffic-continues-to-plummet-which-is-bad-news-for-developers/)/Quora ➡️ less quality training data.
## Human nature
Here’s where it takes off IMO in conjunction with small changes. While checking out the list of basic human needs and wants, I could conclude several ‘cases’:
* Companies freeze hiring to please Investors and/or cut costs and/or get the hype (we’re so AI-native). It disrupts workers’ **certainty** and **safety**.
* Less Job Positions ➡️ more workload for Programmers + each Position is a lot more lucrative (rising ‘demand’ for working as a programmer, yet supply started shrinking)
* More workload ([9-5 to 12-6](https://i.imgur.com/Rw6x05r.jpeg) or, ahem, **8-12-7**) ➡️ more stress, more competition, higher burnout and [potentially higher attrition rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Employee_turnover). This influences **control** and **autonomy**.
* Junior Job Positions [were thought lacking](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qUWg9w6tJJQ) for some time (they are the least ‘capital-efficient’ for companies), even despite the “[who’s gonna become seniors if you don’t hire juniors](https://www.reddit.com/r/cscareerquestions/comments/1n3zwgm/fewer_juniors_today_fewer_seniors_tomorrow/)” rhetoric? It undermines **growth/significance** for market entrants.
♻
The whole situation is conflicting: people are losing certainty and safety (programming is considered a lucrative and significant job status), yet also control and freedom (losing it) + growth/significance.
## Inflection points
Let’s start with the assumption that the success of generative AI was a bit of a paradigm shift. And yeah - using it for programming was one, too.
# What’s to happen next?
![](https://cdn.hashnode.com/res/hashnode/image/upload/v1760009513314/a1bb9193-ccbb-4278-9c5f-917969df0495.png align="center")
*From* [*this*](https://nycdatascience.com/blog/student-works/data-survey-on-mental-health-in-tech-industry/) *survey*
Again, IMO:
* Possible Snowballing events look like they’ll happen mostly in offices, social network posts, etc ➡️ e.g. the anti-RTO (Return To Office) trend in [over 70% companies now](https://archieapp.co/blog/return-to-office-statistics/), [overemployment](https://www.aseonline.org/News-Events/Articles/the-latest-trend-overemployment) tactics, etc.
* Gaping conflicts of less job postings/more unemployed + higher turnover ➡️ unclosed **Human need** for safety ➡️ more rants, more therapy clients due to increased frustration? (always!)
* Some predict a crisis - but is this what’s important? Maybe what matters is the influx and gentrification of e.g. trade jobs? Juniors really seems less in demand - [new grads now](https://lemon.io/blog/software-engineering-job-market/#:~:text=new%20grads%20now%20account%20for%20just%207%25%20of%20hires%20at%20Big%20Tech%20firms%E2%80%94down%2025%25%20from%202023.%C2%A0) account for just **7% of hires** at Big Tech firms—**down 25%** from 2023.
* Regardless of what happens - automation slowly affects and erodes more fields; more low-paying jobs under Damocles ➡️ [more](https://www.democracywithoutborders.org/36471/why-are-political-protests-surging-around-the-world/) [instability and unrest in low-income areas](https://carnegieendowment.org/features/global-protest-tracker?lang=en)? We’re not seeing any signs of moving towards [post-scarcity, and it’s unlikely](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-scarcity) most governments/companies will try doing so.
* Looking through the possibility of **Inflection points**: more automation may happen, or we may arrive at some auto-generating software, or offshoring developers to save money ➡️ that’ll only make the situation ‘worse’, won’t it? PS. Seems to be [confirmed real-time](https://lemon.io/blog/software-engineering-job-market/) by stats - over 10,000 positions [reported lost](https://www.aicerts.ai/news/2025-ai-job-market-over-10000-jobs-lost-to-automation/) in the Lethe.
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